+11% vs analyst target ยท new source ยท 3 agree ยท 1 dissent
Buy and hold 3 months ยท entry $372.59 ยท target $413.45 ยท graded vs the S&P 500 at Feb 1
Why BUY: Beat and raise, record $220.3B backlog after 14 new subs, Jefferies to $455; ~20x forward earnings, above its 50-day.
โ Defense budgets can swing with Tuesday's midterms, and RBC and Bernstein cut targets to ~$360 last month on shipyard costs.
โ Right if
- Gulfstream deliveries and shipyard hours keep climbing, as the CEO said on Friday's call
- The raised 2026 outlook ($17.20 to $17.30 a share) holds or gets beaten
- GD beats the S&P 500 from $372.59 by early February (that's the actual grade)
โ Wrong if
- Midterm results put the defense budget on the chopping block
- Submarine or Gulfstream supply-chain snags come back
- The AI trade rips higher and leaves boring winners behind
Max Edge: Everybody's panicking about AI capex. I'm buying a company that builds submarines and private jets. One of these is a lot harder to vibe-code.