Sports Picks Results: 10-7 on 17 Settled Polymarket Plays
The Daily Five has published 25 sports picks on Polymarket since October 15, each with a real entry price at publish. 17 have settled: 10 won and 7 lost (59%), an average return of -3.67% per $1 staked at our entry price. $100 on every settled pick would be down $62 on $1,700 staked. By league: NFL 7-5, MLB 3-2. Best call: Rays (TB @ CLE) at 50.5¢, +98.02%, tied with Bears (CHI @ ATL). Toughest loss: Colts (TEN @ IND), a 74.5¢ favorite. Favorites (entry 60¢+) went 5-2; picks under 60¢ went 5-5. 8 picks are still open and marked to live Polymarket odds below. Tonight: Rays (CLE @ TB, 8:08 PM ET) at 58.5¢, entry 57.5¢; 49ers (WAS @ SF, 8:15 PM ET) at 76.5¢, entry 78.5¢.
Every result, in order
Oldest first. Tap any square for the pick, its entry price and its line-movement chart.
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Every settled sports pick, by league
Entry is the real Polymarket price of our side when we published; exit is 100¢ for a win and 0¢ for a loss. Final scores from Polymarket's events API. Newest game first.
🏈 NFL 7-5 · avg -4.84%
⚾ MLB 3-2 · avg -0.88%
Still open: 8 picks marked live
Marked to the live Polymarket price. Games settle at the final whistle; futures when their market resolves.
FAQ
How are Daily Five sports picks graded?
Each pick records the real Polymarket price of our side when the edition publishes. A game pick settles at 100 cents if our side wins and 0 cents if it loses, as soon as the final score is in (the official market resolution confirms it); a series or championship future settles when its market resolves. Return is per $1 staked at the entry price, so a win at 50 cents is +100% and any loss is -100%.
Why can the average return be negative with a winning record?
Because price matters. A win on a 75-cent favorite pays about +33%, while every loss costs the full -100%. A record above .500 only makes money if it beats the prices paid, which is why we show the average return and $100-a-pick result next to the win-loss record.
Do you ever pick both sides of a game?
Yes, and both stay on the record. If the market moves and a later edition prefers the other side, both picks are graded, so nothing gets hidden.
Is this betting advice?
No. These are public prediction-market ideas we score and grade in the open for information and entertainment. Prediction markets may not be legal where you live, and you can lose your entire stake.
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