How we rank: the Daily Five Score
Every finance and sports pick gets a 0–100 score from four components worth 25 points each. The Top 5 in each section are ordered by it. We only use real data; when a component can't be computed, it gets a neutral 12.5 and we say so on the card.
1 · Source credibility (0–25)
The source's historical hit rate on our own track record: closed picks from that source that made money. Until a source has at least 5 closed picks it gets a neutral 12.5, labeled new source.
2 · Consensus (0–25)
How many independent, credible sources we found agreeing with the call versus dissenting. 12.5 + 12.5 × (agree − dissent)/(agree + dissent), scaled down when there are fewer than four sources. With no sources checked, it's a neutral 12.5.
3 · Edge vs fair value (0–25)
Stocks: % gap between the live price and the consensus analyst mean price target (Yahoo Finance), signed for BUY or SELL: 12.5 + 50 × gap. Peer valuation isn't computed yet. Sports and markets: the sportsbook's no-vig implied probability minus the Polymarket price, in points: 12.5 + 1.25 × points.
4 · Risk/reward (0–25)
Stocks: the horizon-scaled share of the target gap divided by the horizon's volatility (60-day daily volatility × √trading days): 12.5 + 12.5 × tanh(ratio). Markets: expected value per $1 at the fair probability: 12.5 + 12.5 × tanh(5 × EV).
Scores recompute every time live prices refresh. A high score isn't a guarantee. Not financial or betting advice.
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