AI-ranked NFL plays from The Daily Five, priced on Polymarket, sorted by kickoff, and graded in public after every game. Updated Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Grouped by kickoff (Eastern). Entry is the real Polymarket price when we published; odds and P/L update live. Scored with the Daily Five Score.
edge +1 pts vs books · new source · 2 agree · 1 dissent
Why BUY: Line flipped 4 pts to JAX -2.5 (RotoWire); numberFire gives JAX 60.8% and 77 of 114 experts back the 4-1 Jags.
edge +1 pts vs books · new source · 3 agree · 1 dissent
Why BUY: Mayfield (thumb) is out, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels faces Watt; 90 of 117 tracked experts pick Pittsburgh.
edge +0 pts vs books · new source · 2 agree · 0 dissent
Why BUY: Line flipped 4 pts to NO -1.5 with no QB news (RotoWire), yet 68 of 110 experts and numberFire (53.7%) back NYG.
edge +1 pts vs books · new source · 2 agree · 1 dissent
Why BUY: 79 of 112 experts and numberFire (54.2%) pick Chicago even with Penix cleared; books' no-vig ~51% vs 50.5¢ here.
no sportsbook line · new source · 1 agree · 0 dissent
Why BUY: Home favorite ~78.5¢; Kalshi/books also cluster near ~79% on Kansas City.
no sportsbook line · new source · 1 agree · 0 dissent
Why BUY: Slight home edge at 52.5¢ in a near-coin-flip NFC tilt.
We scan Polymarket's NFL game markets for big moves, heavy volume, and prices that look off versus sportsbook lines and public previews, then rank each BUY with the Daily Five Score. This week's plays are listed above by kickoff, with live odds.
A Polymarket price is the market's implied win probability: 55 cents means about a 55% chance. That makes every pick gradable to the cent, so our record is a real return per $1 staked, not a claimed win rate.
Each pick settles when its Polymarket game market resolves after the final whistle, at 100 cents if our side wins or 0 if it loses. Until then the P/L is marked to the live price.
No. These are public prediction-market ideas we score and track in the open. Nothing here is betting, financial, or investment advice; prediction markets may not be legal where you live, and you can lose your entire stake.
Trade stocks too? See best stocks to buy today.
Get the Daily Five in your inbox before the opening bell.