🏟 Sports market pick · 2026-10-24

California vs. SMU Prediction & Pick: California to Win

BUY California (CFB: CAL @ SMU, Sat Oct 24 12 PM ET)

🏟 Today61D5 score

CFB: CAL @ SMU, Sat Oct 24 12 PM ET

California10%

SMU90%

⏱ KickoffCAH @ SMUSat 12:00 PM ET · in 1h 55m

BUYCalifornia

Entry10.5¢

Live10.5¢

Today▲ +10.53%

Since pick■ +0.00%

CredConsEdgeR/R

edge +1.5 pts vs DraftKings · source hit 55% · 0 agree · 0 dissent

🪙 Coin flipfair price, no edge on the books Polymarket is within 2 pts of DraftKings' no-vig line (+1.5 pts), so the price is fair: a coin flip at the market's own odds, with no edge on the books. Our settled coin flip picks: 11-8, -0.61% avg.

📒 Line at publish California +700 / SMU −1100 → no-vig 12.0% vs Polymarket 10.5¢ +1.5 ptsDraftKings · at publish ↗

Why BUY: Coin flip at a fair price: Polymarket 10.5¢ vs ~12% no-vig at DraftKings (+700); the gap shrank to 1.5 pts as Cal ticked up this morning.

Polymarket ↗Share Details →

Pick details

Published: 2026-10-24 in that day's edition
Entry: 10.5¢
Status: Open · live
Value verdict: 🪙 Coin flip Polymarket is within 2 pts of DraftKings' no-vig line (+1.5 pts), so the price is fair: a coin flip at the market's own odds, with no edge on the books. Our settled coin flip picks: 11-8, -0.61% avg.
Sportsbook check: DraftKings · at publish ↗: California +700 (12.5% implied), SMU −1100 (91.7%). The 4.2% vig comes out, so the no-vig fair chance is 12.0%. Polymarket now: 10.5¢, edge +1.5 pts (Polymarket is cheaper than the books). Edge score 14.4/25 = 12.5 + 1.25 × points.
Source: Polymarket

All picks on CFB: CAL @ SMU →
Full track record →

Since our pick

When we published on Oct 24, Polymarket priced California at 10.5¢, a 10.5% implied chance. It's now 10.5¢ (10.5%), unchanged since the pick. Range since the pick: 9.5¢ to 10.5¢.

Source: Polymarket CLOB price history, updated Oct 24, 10:03 AM ET.

Who will win California vs. SMU?

The Daily Five's pick is California to win, bought at 10.5¢ on Polymarket on Oct 24. Why: Coin flip at a fair price: Polymarket 10.5¢ vs ~12% no-vig at DraftKings (+700); the gap shrank to 1.5 pts as Cal ticked up this morning.

What are the California vs. SMU odds now?

When we published on Oct 24, Polymarket priced California at 10.5¢, a 10.5% implied chance. It's now 10.5¢ (10.5%), unchanged since the pick. Range since the pick: 9.5¢ to 10.5¢.

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California vs. SMU Prediction & Pick: California to Win

Pick details

Since our pick

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