🏟 Sports market pick · 2026-10-21

Week 7 TNF: NE @ CHI, Thu Oct 22 8:15 PM ET? Odds & Prediction: BUY Patriots

BUY Patriots (Week 7 TNF: NE @ CHI, Thu Oct 22 8:15 PM ET)

🏟 Event Oct 2263D5 score
Week 7 TNF: NE @ CHI, Thu Oct 22 8:15 PM ET
BUYPatriots
Entry39.5¢
Live—
Today—
Since pick⏳ pending
CredConsEdgeR/R

edge +2.2 pts vs DraftKings · source hit 64% · 1 agree · 0 dissent

💰 Valuecheaper than the books Polymarket is 2.2 pts under DraftKings' no-vig line (41.7% fair vs 39.5¢). That's the price gap we look for.

📒 Last line read NE +130 / CHI −155 → no-vig 41.7% vs Polymarket 39.5¢ +2.2 ptsDraftKings via ESPN · Oct 21 10:14 AM ET ↗

Why BUY: Value: DraftKings +130 makes New England ~41.7% no-vig vs 39.5¢; the NY Post backs NE, which rates better by DVOA.

Polymarket ↗ShareDetails →

Pick details

Published
2026-10-21 in that day's edition
Entry
39.5¢
Status
Open · live
Value verdict
💰 Value Polymarket is 2.2 pts under DraftKings' no-vig line (41.7% fair vs 39.5¢). That's the price gap we look for.
Sportsbook check
DraftKings via ESPN · Oct 21 10:14 AM ET ↗: NE +130 (43.5% implied), CHI −155 (60.8%). The 4.3% vig comes out, so the no-vig fair chance is 41.7%. Polymarket now: 39.5¢, edge +2.2 pts (Polymarket is cheaper than the books). Edge score 15.3/25 = 12.5 + 1.25 × points.
Line at publish
DraftKings · at publish ↗: Patriots +130 / the other side −155, no-vig 41.7%.
Source
Polymarket

All picks on Week 7 TNF: NE @ CHI →
Full track record →

Since our pick

When we published on Oct 21, Polymarket priced Patriots at 39.5¢, a 39.5% implied chance.

Source: Polymarket CLOB price history, updated Oct 21, 11:34 AM ET.

Week 7 TNF: NE @ CHI, Thu Oct 22 8:15 PM ET?

The Daily Five's pick is BUY Patriots at 39.5¢ on Polymarket (Oct 21). Why: Value: DraftKings +130 makes New England ~41.7% no-vig vs 39.5¢; the NY Post backs NE, which rates better by DVOA.

How has the Patriots pick moved?

When we published on Oct 21, Polymarket priced Patriots at 39.5¢, a 39.5% implied chance.

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