Entry$372.59
Live$354.06
Today▲ +0.89%
Since pick▼ -4.97%
vs the S&P 500 -2.3 pts · S&P -2.7% since the call · this is the grade
CredConsEdgeR/R
+18% vs analyst target · new source · 3 agree · 1 dissent
Buy and hold 3 months · entry $372.59 · target $413.45 · graded vs the S&P 500 at Feb 1
Why BUY: Beat and raise, record $220.3B backlog after 14 new subs, Jefferies to $455; ~20x forward earnings, above its 50-day.
⚠ Defense budgets can swing with Tuesday's midterms, and RBC and Bernstein cut targets to ~$360 last month on shipyard costs.
📅 Catalyst watchGeneral Dynamics earnings (Q4 2026, expected)Wed Jan 27 before the open · in 81 days
✅ Right if
- Gulfstream deliveries and shipyard hours keep climbing, as the CEO said on Friday's call
- The raised 2026 outlook ($17.20 to $17.30 a share) holds or gets beaten
- GD beats the S&P 500 from $372.59 by early February (that's the actual grade)
❌ Wrong if
- Midterm results put the defense budget on the chopping block
- Submarine or Gulfstream supply-chain snags come back
- The AI trade rips higher and leaves boring winners behind
Max Edge: Everybody's panicking about AI capex. I'm buying a company that builds submarines and private jets. One of these is a lot harder to vibe-code.
Entry$532.60
Live$530.61
Today▲ +1.07%
Since pick▼ -0.37%
vs the S&P 500 +3.6 pts · S&P -3.9% since the call · this is the grade
CredConsEdgeR/R
+20% vs analyst target · new source · 4 agree · 0 dissent
Buy and hold 3 months · entry $532.60 · target $603.43 · graded vs the S&P 500 at Jan 26
Why BUY: Seven-plus target hikes into Wednesday's report (UBS $675); Azure seen growing ~47% at ~22.5x forward earnings.
⚠ Expectations are high after a big run; options price a ~4.6% earnings move, and any Azure miss or capex shock can hit it.
📅 Catalyst watchMicrosoft earnings (fiscal Q1 2027)Reported Wed Oct 28 after the close
Since the report: MSFT $531.01 → $530.61 (-0.1%) vs the S&P -4.8% = +4.7 pts. The 3-month grade is still the one that counts.
✅ Right if
- Azure growth at or above the ~47% the Street is looking for
- Capex guide comes with the revenue to pay for it
- MSFT beats the S&P 500 from $532.60 by late January (that's the actual grade)
❌ Wrong if
- Azure lands under ~47% and the AI-demand story wobbles
- A capex shock with no matching revenue
- A drop bigger than the ~4.6% move options are pricing
Max Edge: Wednesday night either makes me look like a genius or gives me a very long Thursday. One print doesn't settle a 3-month call, but it sure sets the mood.
Entry$146.54
Live$162.01
Today▲ +4.11%
Since pick▲ +10.56%
vs the S&P 500 +13.8 pts · S&P -3.2% since the call · this is the grade
CredConsEdgeR/R
+39% vs analyst target · new source · 2 agree · 1 dissent
Buy and hold 3 months · entry $146.54 · target $236.84 · graded vs the S&P 500 at Jan 24
Why BUY: Barron's: T-Mobile has ~400 MHz of spectrum to SpaceX's 80 and trades at ~12.5x forward earnings, a decade low.
⚠ It fell 7.7% Friday; if SpaceX lands cell-site deals faster than Citi's 'years away' estimate, the multiple can compress more.
📅 Catalyst watchT-Mobile earnings (Q3 2026)Reported Wed Oct 28 after the close
Since the report: TMUS $148.08 → $162.01 (+9.4%) vs the S&P -4.8% = +14.2 pts. The 3-month grade is still the one that counts.
✅ Right if
- Postpaid account adds land at or above the ~250,000 T-Mobile guided to
- Management says the churn from the rate-plan switch is already easing
- The 950,000 to 1.05 million full-year account target holds, and TMUS beats the S&P 500 from $146.54 by late January (that's the actual grade)
❌ Wrong if
- Adds miss the ~250,000 guide and churn keeps climbing
- Service revenue comes in under the ~$19.3 billion guide
- Talk of SpaceX's spectrum grabs the call and the 'decade-low multiple' just gets lower
Max Edge: Same night as Microsoft, so Wednesday I find out if I'm a genius twice or wrong in stereo. T-Mobile has beaten EPS 8 quarters straight; the stock just has to stop acting like it hasn't.
Entry$82.10
Live$86.95
Today▲ +0.79%
Since pick▲ +5.91%
vs the S&P 500 +9.2 pts · S&P -3.2% since the call · this is the grade
CredConsEdgeR/R
+8% vs analyst target · new source · 3 agree · 1 dissent
Buy and hold 3 months · entry $82.10 · target $94.58 · graded vs the S&P 500 at Jan 24
Why BUY: Melius rates NextEra a Buy ($100) as the best-placed utility for AI data-center power demand, with Dominion joining.
⚠ The all-stock Dominion deal adds integration risk, and higher rates weigh on utilities.